Election Day is here and former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are still in a close race to cross the Electoral College threshold of 270 based on recent polls. But what are the swing states for 2024?
Looking at the data, there are a few possible scenarios where each candidate could win the Electoral College vote and the presidency.
Assuming that the polls accurately reflect the final results in the states, Trump will win Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona and win the election with 287 electoral votes.
See also: 538 final predictions for the 2024 elections
The former president's lead in those states is no more than 2.4 percentage points, which is within the margin of error in any major poll, according to 538 data.
If polls reduce Harris' lead, she could get exactly 270 votes by winning one electoral vote in Nebraska, plus all the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, if she wins those states.
If polls understate Trump's lead, he may have the advantage of winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 268 electoral votes. A win for Pennsylvania would put him above the 270 limit in this scenario.
As of Monday, November 4, 83 million Americans have already cast their votes in the 2024 election. On Election Day, millions more will join them.
Early voting data has shown that a majority of early voters are women, a fact promoted by the Harris campaign and Democrats.
However, the data also shows that 41% of early voters are registered Democrats, compared to 39% of registered Republicans. In the same period in 2020, 45% of early voters were registered Democrats and 36% were Republicans, according to the data.
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