US optimism over Israel-Hamas ceasefire at stake as new round of talks in Cairo

Tel Aviv – A new round of urgent talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Israel and Hamas Negotiations between Israel and Hamas were expected to begin Thursday in Cairo — a follow-up to last week’s hastily announced negotiations in Doha. The results may show whether the White House’s optimism over the past week is based on reality or wishful thinking.

One of the biggest points of contention between Israel and Hamas that received attention ahead of the talks was whether Israel would agree to withdraw its military from the Gaza Strip's southern border with Egypt – the so-called Philadelphi Corridor.

President Biden was expected to urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to the troop shift during his call with the Israeli leader Wednesday evening. But on Israeli television, Netanyahu dismissed a report in The Washington Post that he would pull troops from the border area as “not true.”

Netanyahu has insisted for months that Gaza’s southern border must remain closed and under Israeli control to ensure that Hamas cannot smuggle weapons through Egypt. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that Israeli forces had destroyed more than 150 Hamas tunnels in the border corridor, but Egyptian officials rejected Israeli claims that significant financial support for Hamas comes through the route.

Sima Shine, a leading Israeli expert on Iran who formerly worked for Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, told CBS News that if ceasefire talks fail, “we will soon see, particularly Israel and Hezbollah, in a full-scale military conflict,” with Israel involving the United States.

Washington is Israel’s most important backer, and as of last year the United States had more than 30,000 troops stationed across the Middle East, according to the Defense Department. Since Hamas sparked the ongoing war in Gaza with its terrorist attack on Israel on Oct. 7, the U.S. military presence in the region has increased dramatically.

Shane said that the so-called “Iran”Axis of ResistanceIncludes proxy groups Hezbollah in LebanonHamas in Gaza Houthis in Yemen And a number of militias in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria, which, “if you add them all together,” number “hundreds of thousands” of fighters.

While many Americans view Iran as probably the greatest security threat to Israel — and Israeli officials regularly refer to the Islamic Republic in those terms — Shane says it is Iran’s allies in Hezbollah in Lebanon who pose the most immediate threat.

“Hezbollah is close to our borders. It is not Iran, which is 1,600 kilometers from Israel. It is completely different. The military establishment estimates that Hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets and missiles. They have precision missiles. This could be a devastating attack on Israel. There is no doubt about it.”

A readout from the US Embassy in Israel of the call on Wednesday between Mr Biden and Mr Netanyahu highlighted the increased US military presence in the region: more F-18 and F-22 warplanes, more Navy destroyers, a submarine armed with Patriot missiles and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group with F-35 fighter jets. Arrived on Wednesday All the data coming from the Pacific indicates that Washington is ready to help defend Israel.

The talks in Cairo are expected to continue through the weekend. Israel and Hamas have accused each other of sabotaging the negotiations for months. The United States said earlier this week that Israel had accepted a so-called final bridging proposal between the two sides’ demands for a deal, but with some changes.

Hamas says it wants to work on the basis of a previous proposal it presented on July 2, which was backed by the United States and the United Nations at the time. The movement accuses Israel of changing the terms of that proposal — and the United States of accepting those changes because of its pro-Israel bias.

The health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip said the Israeli war has killed more than 40,200 people, though it does not distinguish between combatants and civilians. The ministry added on Thursday that the toll included 42 dead and 163 wounded recorded in the past 24 hours alone.

Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7 saw about 1,200 people killed and about 250 captured, with about 80 of them believed to still be held alive in Gaza.

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