On Tuesday, November 5, Americans will cast their votes after one of the most surprising and terrifying election campaigns in history. President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and was replaced by his vice president, Kamala Harris, while Republican candidate Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt and was involved in several criminal cases.
The outcome in the world's largest economy will have far-reaching consequences — both within the United States and globally — on the climate crisis, abortion, and development.
Here are the terms you need to know.
Ballot measures
It's not just a choice between the Democratic ticket (Kamala Harris and Tim Walz) and the Republican ticket (Donald Trump and J.D. Vance) that voters will be asked to make in November. US ballots can also include ballot measures: state-level laws, issues, or questions.
This year, voters in 10 US states may be asked to vote on an abortion law or measure. They are Missouri, Florida, Nebraska, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, Maryland, New York, South Dakota, and Colorado.
Downvote
Actions on the ballot other than voting on the U.S. presidential ticket are down-ballot actions, and roughly a third or more than half of Americans who typically show up to vote do not fill out their entire ballot, according to the American Voting Foundation. . Voters do not have to vote for any down ballot measures in order for their votes to be counted.
Electoral college
The Electoral College is a group of 538 people, called electors, who officially cast their votes for the US president after citizens vote. This is a requirement stipulated in the US Constitution. Electors are chosen by political parties in each of the fifty US states before the election.
The number of Electoral College votes varies between states, and the number is determined based on the population. The number of votes equals the total congressional delegation: the number of senators plus the number of representatives. Although the District of Columbia is not a state, – like Washington, D.C. – it is allocated three electoral votes.
That's why the total is 538: 100 senators plus 435 representatives plus three for D.C.
A candidate needs more than half – or at least 270 – of the Electoral College votes to win. In most states, all electoral college votes from a state go to the same candidate. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which allocate two electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote in the state, and then one electoral vote to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district.
The party that wins the state has its electors officially vote for its candidate. This occurs a few weeks after the November elections – and after US states certify their election results – on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December.
In 2020, Donald Trump tried to isolate voters in some states before the Electoral College vote, but the US Supreme Court rejected that attempt the previous week.
Popular vote
The popular vote is the total number of eligible voters who voted for a particular candidate: in other words, the number of votes cast for one candidate or another. The main thing you should know about the popular vote is that winning it does not mean you win the presidency. The presidency is won by the candidate who receives the majority of electoral college votes. In other words: American elections are determined by races in individual states. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump received fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but won the presidency, and in 2000, George W. Bush received fewer votes than Al Gore but still won.
Vote screening and certification
Vote counting is the process of counting votes and tabulating the results. This includes checks to ensure the results are correct, including making sure every ballot is considered, and frequently checking the results.
The vote counting process ends with certification, where the vote counting process is signed. In short, this is the official confirmation of the results.
County election officials certify the voting process by signing a declaration stating that the results, reported by precincts, are a complete and accurate record of every vote cast.
Certification is mandatory and codified in law, meaning that officials cannot refuse to certify the result, although in recent years some have refused to certify results even though it is their legal duty to do so. Although the certification process has “long been considered an administrative afterthought,” according to the Associated Press, there are concerns it could happen again in November.
Red state, blue state, swing state
A red state is a state that tends to vote Republican, a blue state that tends to vote Democratic, and a swing state that swings between the two major parties from one election to the next.
Swing states, or battleground states, are where campaigns tend to spend the most money trying to win over undecided voters, or voters they hope will be persuaded to switch from supporting the other team to their own.
Voters in the seven swing states are likely to decide the election results this year. The states and the number of Electoral College votes that will be contested are Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). . Together they represent 93 Electoral College votes, or more than a third of what a candidate needs to win.
Swing states are less commonly referred to as “throw” or “purple” states—the latter referring to a combination of blue and red.
Blue wall, red wall
The blue wall marks the 18 US states and the District of Columbia – home of Washington, D.C. – that voted Democratic from 1992 to 2012.
In 2016, Trump won three blue wall states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Red wall is less commonly used as a phrase, but it once referred to states extending from South Carolina to Idaho. In 2020, Time magazine referred to it as “more like a pink curtain or a pink pond” as it began to crumble.
Rust belt
The Rust Belt is a group of states in the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, where industries such as manufacturing and coal mining have declined — or been “left to rust.” It is an economic region, not a geographical one. Michigan, home to Detroit, once the center of the US auto industry, is one such city.
It is generally viewed as including much of the Midwest (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin) along with Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and parts of New York, according to Encyclopedia Britannica.
There are three rust belt swing states in the Midwest – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – which is why they matter in any election, including this one.
Winning these states is one path for Kamala Harris to achieve victory — or get enough Electoral College votes — according to analysts who modeled the paths based on polling. The other path to victory for Harris and the Democrats is the Sun Belt (more on what that refers to below). According to the model, Trump would need to win both sets of states to obtain the 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure victory.
Sun belt
The Sun Belt includes 15 states that stretch across the southern United States, from southwest to southeast, and which have a sunnier or milder climate than the northern states.
It includes the four swing states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. The remaining three cases are in the Rust Belt.
Bible Belt, Bridge States
The Bible Belt is the American South and tends to be Christian and conservative – and votes Republican. They include Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and Oklahoma. Tulsa, Oklahoma is known as the “buckle” of the Bible Belt.
Bridge states, or bridge states, also known as Central America, are states located in the center of the country, between the east and west coasts of the United States – the most populous regions of the country. A third of Americans live in only four states: California, Texas, Florida, and New York.
Absentee ballot or mail-in ballot
These votes are cast by mail, or in person, depending on state rules, before Election Day. Trump called for an end to mail-in voting. This is partly because many Americans voted by mail in the 2020 election due to the Covid pandemic, and Democrats chose that option more than Republicans. Seven million more Democrats than Republicans voted early in the 20 states that collect party data.
Provisional ballots
When a voter's name does not appear on the voter registration list at the polling place in his or her precinct on Election Day, they may be given a provisional ballot, which allows them to vote but means placing their vote in a separate “secret envelope” instead. From the ballot box. The registration status of these voters is then determined. If they are registered, their votes are counted.
In 2018, a voter named Crystal Mason was sentenced to five years in prison for casting a provisional ballot in the 2016 election without realizing she was ineligible to vote. The issue was seen as part of a broader Republican effort to intimidate people from voting. Mason is exonerated in 2024.
Voter suppression
Voter suppression tactics are laws, measures or misinformation intended to prevent people — for example people of color, most of whom tend to vote Democratic, according to research by Pew — from voting or registering to vote.
Voting advocates in the South told The Guardian in 2023 that they felt like they were playing a game of Whac-a-Mole, trying to educate and register voters while also having to work to defeat oppressive legislation that would impose new rules on mail-in voting or limit declines. Boxes or require proof of citizenship to vote.
The various tactics are too complex to go into here. But Georgia is a clear example. In 2021, Georgia Republicans enacted SB 202, a bill that includes sweeping voting restrictions, including a ban on serving food or water within 150 feet (45.7 m) of a polling place or within 25 feet (7.6 m) of any polling place. A voter standing in line – which can extend far beyond a 150-foot radius. Violating it is a misdemeanor punishable by up to one year in prison and a $1,000 fine.
Georgia recently saw long lines to vote, and many saw the measure as a clear attempt to make it more difficult for black voters to cast ballots. The law was darkly mocked in an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm.
The path to victory
The path to victory refers to how a candidate wins 270 Electoral College votes—rather than, for example, having the most votes—and thus wins the election. It involves targeting specific states — swing states and their Electoral College votes — with time, money, and messaging. This often includes candidates' chances in and focus on the Rust Belt and Sun Belt states, which include the seven swing states and their most important Electoral College votes.
Alternatives
Campaign surrogates are individuals who speak publicly on behalf of a political candidate, usually to promote him or her. Think Oprah, Obama, and Joe Biden for Harris, or Hulk Hogan and Nikki Haley for Trump.
October surprise
This is the term given to a news event that occurs just before an election, in other words October — because elections are always held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November — that affects the outcome of the election. For example, the Access Hollywood tape, or John Podesta's emails in the 2016 election.
