Shelters on the southern U.S. border and in some major cities that were overwhelmed by migrants a year ago say they are seeing sharp declines in the number of migrants seeking refuge, with some reporting a drop of as much as 60% in the past few months alone.
In July, the White House said the number of migrants apprehended at the southwest border had dropped by 50% in the month since President Joe Biden’s executive order took effect in June to limit asylum applications. Now, the impact of Biden’s order is being felt in the emergency shelter infrastructure that has been built over the past few years to handle what has been a record surge in migrants.
The long Texas-Mexico border was one of the busiest for migrants a year ago. But in Del Rio, Texas, Tiffany Burrow of the Val Verde Humanitarian Border Coalition said the flow of migrants needing shelter is now “much less.”
At the El Paso Rescue Mission this week, there were about 80 to 90 people using the beds, compared with about 200 the same week last year, according to CEO Blake Barrow. At the nearby Annunciation House shelter, executive director Ruben Garcia said he received just seven migrants needing beds from the Border Patrol that day and 25 the day before — a significant drop from last year, when the Border Patrol was sending migrants by the hundreds to shelters like his.
But Garcia said the decline wasn't all due to Biden's executive action.
“We started to see a more pronounced decline after the Biden executive order went into effect, but we’ve already seen a decline because of Mexico’s enforcement of the order. I think if Mexico stops its active enforcement, it will make the Biden executive order very difficult to enforce,” he said.
After negotiations with the Biden administration, Mexico’s government, led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his like-minded successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who takes office on October 1, has stepped up efforts to stem the flow of migrants north through Mexican territory. Data from Mexico’s National Migration Institute shows how important Mexico’s law enforcement role has been in stopping, detaining, and in some cases deporting migrants headed to the United States.
The Mexican government’s actions have been particularly important in reducing the total number of non-Mexican migrants arriving in the United States as the number of people from other countries trying to reach the United States via Mexico has risen. In June, the most recent month for which INM data is available, the country tracked 121,536 encounters with migrants heading north from countries outside Mexico, such as Guatemala and Venezuela, compared to 58,251 in June 2023.
Increased enforcement by Mexico and the impact of Biden's executive action on shelters can be seen on the south side of the border as well.
A shelter operator in Nogales, Mexico, the twin city of Nogales, Arizona, said he was now receiving 60 to 100 U.S.-bound migrants a day, down 80 percent from last year.
In Matamoros, near Brownsville, Texas, Pastor Abraham Barbieri frequently brings food and water to migrant camps. He said the once-sprawling camps have been reduced to just 25 migrants, with another 400 in a nearby shelter.
This represents a sharp decline compared to 2023. “At around this time last year, the refugee camp was home to about 2,000 to 3,000 people,” he said.
He said the growing reliance on the U.S. government’s CBP One application, which migrants can use to apply for asylum without entering the United States, has contributed to the decline. “I think people are now thinking, ‘Well, I don’t have to go all the way to the border, I don’t have to cross the river illegally,’” he said.
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, from January 2023 to July 2024, an estimated 188,500 migrants used the CBP One app to schedule appointments at U.S. ports of entry.
In US border cities outside Texas and in cities farther north of the border, migrant numbers have also declined.
In Tucson, Ariz., George Rushing, who runs the Casa Alitas Welcome Center, which houses children and families, said his shelter has seen a 60% drop in residents since Biden’s executive order. A city spokesman said contracts with hotels to house migrants on demand are no longer being honored.
In Pima County, which includes Tucson, the number of migrants in shelters in early June was 3,751. By mid-July, the number had dropped to 913.
In Chicago, the total population rose from more than 13,000 in February to 5,594 in August. Some of that is due to the city’s decision to evict migrants from shelters after a set period, as well as to relocate them elsewhere and find migrants their own housing.
The declines are similar in Denver, where nonprofit leaders now report a “sharp decline” in arrivals. About a year ago, about 600 migrants were receiving city services, such as shelter or travel assistance; it then rose to more than 3,700. By this week, the number was down to about 230. The city closed its last hotel shelter in June, but has left other sites open for new arrivals.
“We’ve moved from emergency response to sustainability because some of these people have chosen to make Denver their home,” said Yuli Casas, who is studying resettlement at her nonprofit ViVe Wellness as part of the city’s pilot program to turn 800 asylum seekers into a viable workforce once they are allowed to work legally.
Shelter populations in other cities have not declined as sharply.
In San Diego, the flow of migrants has dropped from 1,596 weekly arrivals last August to 1,100 weekly, said Sandy Young of the Jewish Family Service of San Diego, which runs the city's network of shelters.
In New York, the number of migrants in shelters across the city remained steady at 64,300, down just 1,000 from a few months ago, according to Kat Capossela, a spokeswoman for the city comptroller.
The city has a “right to shelter” law, unlike other cities, where shelters can simply close to reduce population, said Josh Goldfein, who directs the homeless rights project at the Legal Aid Society of New York. “And New York is historically New York. People are going to stay here because they’ve been integrated into the economy.”
Meanwhile, in places that have seen a drop in migrant numbers, some shelter operators say they are waiting to see if the temporary lull will last after the U.S. election in November.
“I think what we are seeing now will continue for the next couple of months,” said Garcia of the Annunciation House. He noted that while the numbers are now “very low,” the drivers of migration and the demographics of those heading north have not changed.
