explainer
As the region awaits Iran's response to the Israeli assassinations, the United States moves its forces into the region.
The United States has sent a naval strike group to the eastern Mediterranean amid heightened tensions following Israel's assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The killings occurred within hours of each other on July 30 and 31, and Haniyeh's killing was blamed on Israel, although it has not officially claimed responsibility.
The deployment comes after a phone call on Sunday between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant in anticipation of an Iranian counterattack.
In a statement later issued by the Pentagon, Austin affirmed “the United States' commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of the U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”
What are the risks?
Observers fear that any response to the assassinations, whether by Iran or its ally Hezbollah, could ignite a wider regional war and perhaps draw the United States into supporting its ally Israel.
The deployment of the strike force comes at a time when critics of the US administration are calling for it to use its influence to enforce a ceasefire, CNBC reported. US President Joe Biden has also criticized the conduct of the war on Gaza, describing Israeli operations in the Strip as “overblown” in February, and has repeatedly said that “too many” civilians have been killed. However, this has not led to any strong attempts to pressure Israel to stop its assault on Gaza, such as imposing an arms embargo or other sanctions.
Several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and a number of Western countries, urged their citizens to leave Lebanon, fearing a violent Israeli attack if it were to be directly hit. At the same time, a number of airlines suspended their flights to Israel, Jordan and Lebanon.
What does the United States hope to achieve by deploying naval power in the region?
According to Gordon Gray, a professor and former US ambassador, “The announcement of the deployment of the carrier strike group is intended to deter Iran, not escalate the situation.”
In October last year, Biden ordered a similar deployment to the eastern Mediterranean, when one of the world’s largest aircraft carriers, the USS Gerald R. Ford, sailed to the region, joined by ships and spy planes from the United Kingdom. At the time, US officials framed the deployment as an attempt to deter Hezbollah and Iran from “exploiting” Israel’s war on Gaza, then in its early stages. Israel has now killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians in the war.
Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said he believes “the US is sending a clear signal to Iran that it will be part of any future fighting, which will likely deter Iran from carrying out major retaliation against Israel.”
What ships has the US deployed?
The strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its squadron of F-35C fighter jets, was already heading toward the region, where it was scheduled to replace the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. Austin has now ordered it to increase its speed. In addition, the USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered, guided-missile submarine that was already in the Mediterranean, has been deployed to the region.
Is this an escalation?
Ha Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute believes the show of force is aimed at reducing the chances of escalation, without the US having to confront the behaviour of its ally Israel and its war on Gaza.
However, limiting the potential for any escalation while taking a hands-off approach to the Israeli government’s actions is likely to be difficult, especially when dealing with a state that has proven to be “incredibly reckless,” as Heller noted.
“Lack of accountability guarantees impunity, and (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu has violated every rhetorical red line Biden has set, and he will continue to do so, until he believes there will be real consequences,” he said.
