How can these American elections change the state of the world?

When US President Joe Biden walked through Kiev in February 2023 in a surprise visit to show solidarity with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, sirens sounded. “I felt something… more strongly than ever,” he later recalled. “America is a beacon to the world.”

The world is now waiting to see who will take charge of this lighthouse after Americans choose their choice in the presidential elections scheduled for next week. Will Kamala Harris continue to follow in Biden's footsteps with her conviction that in “these uncertain times, it is clear that America cannot back down”? Or will it be Donald Trump, hoping that “Americanism, not globalism” will lead the way?

We live in a world in which the value of America's global influence has been called into question. Regional powers are going their own way, authoritarian regimes are forging their own alliances, and devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere are raising uncomfortable questions about the value of Washington's role. But America is important thanks to its economic and military strength, and its key role in many alliances. I turned to some knowledgeable observers for their thoughts on the global consequences of this momentous election.

“I cannot sugarcoat these warnings,” says Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO. “Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with his threat to withdraw from NATO echoing in everyone’s ears.”

Washington's defense spending amounts to two-thirds of the military budgets of NATO's 31 members. Aside from NATO, the United States spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.

Trump boasts that he is playing hardball to force other NATO countries to meet their spending targets, which are 2% of their gross domestic product — only 23 member states met that target in 2024. But his erratic statements remain contradictory.

If Harris wins, Ms. Gottemoeller believes “NATO will undoubtedly be in good hands in Washington.” But she has a warning there too. “It will be ready to continue working with NATO and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but it will not back down from pressure (spending) on ​​Europe,” he added.

But Harris's White House team will have to govern with the Senate or House, which may soon be in Republican hands, and will be less inclined to support foreign wars than their Democratic counterparts. There is a growing sense that no matter who becomes president, pressure will be mounting on Kiev to find ways out of this war, as US lawmakers become increasingly reluctant to pass massive aid packages.

Whatever happens, Ms. Gottemoeller says, “I don't think NATO should collapse.” Europe will need to “step forward to lead.”

The next US president will have to operate in a world facing the greatest risks of major power confrontation since the Cold War.

“The United States remains the most important international actor on matters of peace and security,” says Lee Comfort Iro, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group. “But their ability to help resolve conflicts is diminishing,” she adds with a caveat.

Wars have become more difficult than ever to end. “The deadly conflict is becoming more intractable, with major power competition accelerating and middle powers rising,” is how Ms. Iro describes the scene. Wars like Ukraine's attract multiple powers, and wars like Sudan's pit regional players with competing interests against each other, some of whom are more invested in war than peace.

Ms. Iro says America is losing its moral high ground. “Global actors have noted that they apply one standard to Russia's actions in Ukraine, and another to Israel's actions in Gaza. The war in Sudan has seen terrible atrocities, but it is treated as a second-rate issue.

She says Harris' victory “represents continuity for the current administration.” If Trump is the one, “he might give Israel a freer hand in Gaza and elsewhere, and he has hinted that he might try to cut a Ukraine deal with Moscow over Kiev's head.”

In the Middle East, the Democratic candidate repeatedly echoed Biden's strong support for Israel's right to defend itself. But she was also keen to stress that “the killing of innocent Palestinians must stop.”

Trump also declared that it was time to “go back to peace and stop killing people.” But he is said to have asked Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”

The Republican challenger prides himself on being a peacemaker. He pledged in an interview with the Saudi Al Arabiya channel on Sunday evening, saying: “I will achieve peace in the Middle East, and soon.”

He promised to expand the Abraham Accords of 2020. These bilateral agreements normalized relations between Israel and a few Arab countries, but were widely seen as having marginalized the Palestinians and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.

Regarding Ukraine, Trump never hides his admiration for strongmen like Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has made clear that he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and with it the massive military and financial support provided by the United States. “I'm going to get out,” he insisted at a recent rally. “We have to get out.”

On the other hand, Harris said: “I was proud to stand by Ukraine. I will continue to stand with Ukraine. “I will work to ensure Ukraine’s victory in this war.”

But Ms. Iro worries that no matter who is elected, things could get worse in the world.

“The biggest shock to the global economy in decades.” This is the view of prominent China researcher Rana Mitter regarding Trump's proposed 60% tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.

Imposing huge costs on China, and many other trading partners, has been one of the most pressing threats to Trump in his “America First” approach. But Trump also praises what he sees as a strong personal connection to President Xi Jinping. He told the Wall Street Journal editorial board that he would not have to use military force if Beijing moved to blockade Taiwan because the Chinese leader “respects me and knows I'm (expletive) crazy.”

But both prominent Republicans and Democrats are hardliners. Both see Beijing as intent on trying to overtake America as the most important power.

But Mitter, a British historian who serves as chair of the Department of Asian American Relations at Harvard Kennedy School, sees some differences. With Ms. Harris, he says, “relationships are likely to develop in a linear way from where they are now.” If Trump wins, this would be a “more flexible scenario.” For example, in Taiwan, Mitter points out Trump's ambivalence over whether to defend an island far from America.

China's leaders believe Harris and Trump will be tough. “A small group of establishments favor Harris as ‘the best opponent they know,’” Mitter says. There is a significant minority who see Trump as a businessman whose unpredictability might just mean a big deal with China, though that seems unlikely.

America and… the Middle East

The latest episode of “The Global Story” examines what a Trump or Harris presidency could mean for violence in Israel, Gaza and the surrounding region.

Listen now on BBC Sounds. If you're outside the UK, listen wherever you get your podcasts.

“The US election is of great importance not only to its citizens, but to the entire world because of the urgency of the climate and nature crises,” says Mary Robinson, president of The Elders, a group of world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela. Former President of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

“Every fraction of a degree matters to avoid the worst effects of climate change and prevent a future in which devastating hurricanes like Milton are the norm,” she added.

But as Hurricanes Milton and Helen raged, Trump derided environmental plans and policies to address this climate emergency as “one of the greatest scams ever.” Many expect him to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, as he did in his first term.

However, Robinson believes Trump cannot stop the momentum that is now building. “He cannot stop the US energy transition and roll back billions of dollars in green subsidies…nor can he stop the tireless non-federal climate movement.”

Harris, who has yet to clarify her own position, also urged intensified efforts “to show leadership, build on the momentum of recent years, and motivate other emitters to pick up the pace.”

“The outcome of the US election carries enormous significance, given the unparalleled influence that the United States exercises, not only through its military and economic power, but through its ability to lead with moral authority on the world stage,” says Martin Griffiths, a veteran expert. Conflict mediator, who was until recently UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.

He sees greater light if Harris wins, and says that “a return to a Trump presidency characterized by isolation and unilateralism does little to deepen global instability.”

But he also criticized the Biden-Harris administration, citing its “hesitation” regarding the deteriorating situation in the Middle East.

The heads of aid agencies have repeatedly condemned the deadly attack launched by Hamas on 7 October on Israeli civilians. But they repeatedly called on the United States to do more to end the profound suffering of civilians in Gaza as well as in Lebanon.

Biden and his top officials have consistently called for more aid to flow into Gaza, and at times they have made a difference. But critics say the aid and pressure have never been enough. A recent warning about the possibility of cutting off some vital military aid has led to the decision being postponed until after the US elections.

The United States is the largest single donor when it comes to the United Nations system. In 2022, it provided a record $18.1 billion (£13.9 billion).

But in Trump's first term, he halted funding for several UN agencies and withdrew from the World Health Organization. Other donors rushed to fill the gaps – which is what Trump wanted to happen.

But Griffiths still believes that America is an indispensable power.

“At a time of global conflict and uncertainty, the world longs for the United States to rise to the challenge of responsible, principled leadership…And we demand more. We deserve more. And we dare to hope for more.

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