The secret of American authority has been summarized and excelled in the best way for more than a century.
America, Jean -Julis Guskrand, noticed the French ambassador to the United States during World War I, “Blessed Nations”. To the north and the south they were friendly neighbors and a military weakness. “In the East, Fish and West, Fish.” The United States was a continental force, and strategically, an island – with all the security provided by geography gifts. No unnamed global power was. This unique physical security is the real American exceptional.
Americans take this fine geography a matter of it: the wars of their country are always matches outside, and their neighbors are commercial partners and weekend destinations, not competitors or enemies. The United States's ability to offer energy all over the world depends on technology and logistics, but it ultimately depends on the safe borders and friendly neighbors. But this may not be the case for a longer period. In the threat of war with both Canada and Mexico, Donald Trump demands the greatest strategic advantage in America.
In normal times, one will be subjected to severe pressure to find a pair of the most friendly countries from the United States and Canada. Canadians and Americans share a common language (regardless of Québécois), sports championships, $ 683 billion in trade, and the tallest unpaid limits in the world, with more than 5,000 miles (8,000 km). The Americans and the Canadians fought alongside both world wars, as well as in Korea and Afghanistan.
It is easy to make fun of Trump in Canada. Since his return to his post in January, he repeatedly said that he wanted to make Canada the state 51 and have taken to summon former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, “Trudeau's ruler.” In what could be a spelling of post -September 11 aspirations for some American American conservatives, Trump fired at the border with Canada as a “meaningless” artificial line.
But the Canadians do not laugh. Living next to a great power has fought multiple wars over the past twenty years, and is now practicing a post -truth policy, it is angry and far.
Canada's alcohol stores pulled American -made alcohol from their shelves. Star-SPANGLED sign singing during hockey and basketball games dirt from the stands. Airlines traveled from Canada to the United States, where ticket sales decreased by 70 %. Trudeau, who did not know that he was in a hot microphone, told his ministerial colleagues that Trump's regional greed was a “real thing” and that they should not reject this as a typical Trump player. Mark Carney, Khalifa Trudeau, warned the Canadians that the long partnership with the United States, “based on deepening integration between our economies, security cooperation and military cooperation.”
Earlier this year, Pierre Boelifer, the Conservative Party candidate in the national elections in Canada, enjoyed a big difference in the polls and it seemed that he was scheduled to become the next Prime Minister. But the Canadians who did not like Trump apparently helped Carney, the new political expatriate and the liberal party candidate (despite Trump's criticism of Poilievre in an interview with Fox News, perhaps because Poilievre interacts with falling reconnaissance numbers, the axis to criticize the American president). Carney polls have risen, and Polilerver collapsed, and this week, Carney won the elections – but it is not about to head the annexation of Canada. According to Carney's account, in the talks, Trump sparked his vision of Canada as the 51st state of the United States, which Carney refused directly.
The Americans are ready to find the idea of ​​a security threat from Canada. Some of the Karas Trump to Canada depends on its trivial defensive spending, less than 1.5 % of GDP, making Canada one of the late NATO. But Canadian capabilities are necessary to defend the American homeland. Canadian radars are long and short -range provides the largest part of the Northern Warning System (NWS), which is guarded against aircraft and missiles that enter North America via the Arctic. Canadian withdrawal from NWS, the joint director, would reduce the ability of the United States for strategic defense and deterrence. While such a move by Canada is usually unimaginable, if she is afraid of invasion, because she has a reason to do it now, this may take steps that have so far been outside the possibility.
If Trump's actions against Canada baffles the mind, his attitude towards Mexico is more interpretation, albeit more dangerous. Trump descended in that golden elevator at Trump Tower in June 2015 and announced the first presidential attempt with Dayyib against Mexican immigrants. In the contract since then, the Republican Party to watch the Mexican drug gangs, if not the Mexican state itself, came as a major threat to the United States, even with the displacement of Mexico China to become the largest commercial partner in the United States.
With Trump's return to power, reality began to match the speech. American forces are now in active service on the southern border, and Mexican drug gangs have been officially classified as foreign terrorist groups, providing the legal peak of the president to order American soldiers to enter and destroy Mexican lands. Done -monitoring aircraft in the United States monitors fentanel laboratories in Mexico – by mutual agreement – but Mexican President Claudia Shinbom, excluded its use to strike drug gangs, which was discussed by US officials.
Although Trump issued an executive order on the first day of his second term, as he announced the state of emergency on the American and Mexican borders, the active service forces that he published are not currently participating in the application of the law, which is prohibited by American law, and providing logistical support only for customs protection and border protection. But if Trump calls for the Law of the Rebellion for the year 1807 at some point, this may change and the army may begin to arrest and detain Mexican immigrants.
Any unilateral American military intervention in Mexico will be reckless. With some of the largest cities of the United States a few hours of borders, karmetat will have great chances of revenge, which in turn will provoke American escalation. Civil deaths caused by US military strikes can launch the main local conflict in Mexico, a country of 130 million people, to the point of creating a wave of tidal of refugees. American geography protected it from most of the consequences of its catastrophic wars after 9/11 in the Greater Middle East. But luck will finally run out if Trump tries to restart a copy of the “war on terror” across the southern border.
With the war of wars in Europe, the Middle East and Trump with an unprecedented tariff for many American and allied partners, the repercussions of Trump's policies appear to be “First America” ​​in the first place in Europe and Asia. But the most skillful and dangerous threats of American security and prosperity are approaching home.
Three months after his second term, Donald Trump, and perhaps even irreversible, was damaged, relations with his country's neighbors and the largest commercial partners. Few American presidents committed strategic misfortune. Nothing did so quickly. If the president wants to determine something he achieved that none of his contemporary ancestors had, then this feat will definitely be eligible.
Gil Barndollar is an unpredictable colleague at the Priority Defense Foundation. Rajan Menon is Professor Spitzer Fakhry for International Relations at the Powell School, City College in New York, and a great research scientist at the Saltzman Institute at Columbia University.
