Over the past two months, I’ve traveled throughout the United States and parts of Europe, often speaking about my new book, “The Age of Revolutions,” which describes how we live during a period of profound turmoil in society, politics, policy, economics, and international affairs. Despite the wealth and education of many people I encountered, there was a pervasive sense of unrest and fear that these changes were leading us into darker times. Many questions during my book talks revolved around one common theme: “Is there anything hopeful these days?” I aim to answer this question and explain why I remain optimistic despite all the risks.
European Concerns and the Trump Effect
In Europe, many fear that Donald Trump’s victory in November will usher them into a new and dangerous world. They believe that the United States could turn its back on Europe, leading to the disintegration of the continent’s security architecture. As one European statesman told me: “We in the West have lived in a stable, peaceful, open world, and we take that for granted. But now we have all these challenges, external and internal, and all of that could collapse.”
This is possible. The external challenges alone are enormous. We are now witnessing Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea forming an axis in opposition to Western power and Western values.
Great Power Competition and Its Impact
The return of great power competition is having an interesting effect. Western values and practices, often criticized for their flaws and hypocrisy, are increasingly judged against the alternatives. If you do not like a world dominated by Western power and ideas, would you prefer the Russian or the Chinese world?
A new poll by Ipsos and King’s College London (which coincided with my Fulbright Distinguished Lecture this year at Oxford) highlighted the changing global mood. The study, surveying nearly 24,000 people in 31 countries, found that people are increasingly critical of the growing power and influence of authoritarian great powers. They saw Russia, China, and Iran as three of the four countries that most often use their influence for evil, a deterioration in views of all three since the last time this poll was conducted in 2019. The number of people who said Russia uses its influence for evil has risen by 22 percentage points, China by 10 percentage points, and Iran by 5 percentage points over the past five years. (The other country on this list of four is Israel—a sad state of affairs that should serve as a wake-up call to Israelis.)
Global Perception of U.S. and China
This survey aligns with another global survey by the Pew Research Center in 2023. When people in 24 countries were asked whether they viewed China or the United States more favorably, a median of 59% of respondents had a favorable view of the United States, compared with just 28% for China.
The rise of China and the resurgence of Russia have destabilized international affairs. However, they have also reminded the world of the choice between two sets of values – liberal Western values and illiberal authoritarian values. The difference is stark in the rivalries in Europe and Asia over Ukraine and Taiwan. In each case, the West is trying to let people (in Ukraine and Taiwan) freely choose how they want to live their lives. By contrast, Russia and China are stifling that freedom. That is a clear difference, and people around the world can see it.
The U.S. Perspective and Internal Challenges
In the Ipsos/KCL survey, people in most countries view U.S. influence on the world stage more positively than they did in 2019—with one notable exception: the United States itself. The loss of confidence among Americans in their country’s vitality, strength, and virtues is deeply troubling.
If you look at the facts, the United States is stronger on many measures than it has been in years. But that’s not how many Americans feel. In conversations I’ve had during my book tour, many have expressed their disquiet about the deep polarization and divisions within the country. Many have wondered whether it’s possible to break through, to reach some kind of compromise that will move the country forward.
Optimism Amidst Change
Despite these challenges, I remain optimistic. We are going through a storm of change. In the United States, these problems are constantly being brought to light. We wash our dirty laundry in plain sight. Talking about our failures shakes our political system. We will have to work on these problems. But it is surely better than suppressing them, forcing people to conform, and presenting a facade of North Korean-style unity to the world. These polls show that people around the world are able to distinguish what is real from what is fake. When faced with a choice, most people prefer the West and its values, with all its flaws.
In conclusion, despite the profound turmoil we are experiencing globally, there is reason for hope. The world’s preference for Western values, despite their imperfections, suggests a resilience and appeal that authoritarian alternatives cannot match. This enduring preference provides a foundation upon which we can build a better future, even amidst the challenges we face today.
