Mayor Brandon Johnson and his progressive movement have been strengthened again and again in the polls since their victory in the elections in 2023, and most of them are taking it when the city's voters He rejected his plan Keystone To impose the alleged palace tax and use the flow to provide housing for unprecedented people.
There is an easy explanation: although Chicago is much less conservative than the nation as a whole, the city is really a middle city. in reconnaissance Among the 1,021 residents of Cook Province, which they waged in late February, is just over a third of adults in Chicago, who were determined as liberal. While they largely exceed 16 % that they say are conservative, moderates are far from the largest larger bloc, representing 48 % of the city's population.
The collapse remained very constant over the past decade, indicating that Johnson's victory was anomalies and not a sign of a tecton shift in the voters. The results also indicate that unless it moves towards the center, it may easily lose its re -election within two years of a middle candidate.
Chicago, like Illinois, is still strong, as we saw in the 2024 presidential elections, when the neighboring states turned on both sides and voted for Donald Trump for the presidency. But we have long been more than the pragmatic Democrats who often appreciated the positions of positions for what they did on the basics. We still want a city working.
This moderate series was clear in the democratic elementary elections last year for the Cook State lawyer, when Progressive candidateClayton Harris III, by Eileen O'Neill Burke, who carried out a tougher prosecutor and continued to win the general elections. As the feelings appeared in November, when most Johnson Loss of allies with leftist tendencies In the election of the new education council in Chicago.
Chicago is a strange thing when it comes to political ideology. On the national level, conservatives gained numbers at the expense of liberals and moderates, According to our recent poll. In 2019, 31 % of American adults launched themselves the province; Today, their share reaches 38 %, which makes it many like the middle of the road. The liberals make up the remaining 24 %.
In Chicago, the center still holds. True, Trump got More voices in the city In 2024 ever, but Vice President Kamala Harris still wins easily, with 77 % of votes, moderate Democrats and liberals alike. Clean sweeping Below the rest of the voting.
The relative stability is clear in our poll. If we look back in themselves the past two politicians, 38 % of potential voters – those at least 18 years old in 2016 – said they are liberals in 2016, when Trump won his first time, while 42 % informed that they were moderate and 20 % were conservative. In 2023, the liberals made up 32 %, run 50 % and conservatives 18 % of adults in Chicago, based on the memories of the respondents.
Johnson won two years ago by filling out a base of progressive and members of the government work Unions – and through Imagine his opponent In the surface flow elections, Paul Vallas, former CEO of Chicago Public Schools, as an extremist supported by Trump donors. The choice between them, many major voters stood up to Johnson.
If the voters are given such a polarized option again, Johnson may be able to beat a sufficient number of voters in the center for their re -election. But if his next opponent is really moderate, the mayor may turn into another ancient.
The center represents nearly half of the voters, and In our pollsand They probably gather to say that Chicago will be in the best way by moderate (74 %) and less likely to agree to Johnson's performance (16 %). They will decide the next mayor's race, and thus the city's policy in 2025 – most likely.
Will Johnson is the CEO of the Chicago -based Harris Poll, one of the leading companies in public research in the world.
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Originally published: March 13, 2025 at 5:00 am CDT
