Last week in Europe, the United States sent some very strong messages, and it is ready to raise the world's applicable system.
US Vice President JD Vance warned a sudden security conference that Europe has an “enemy at home”, referring to leaders who ignore their citizens' concerns and values. He also called for the introduction of right -wing political groups to the prevailing direction.
Meanwhile, at a meeting of NATO defense ministers, US Defense Minister Beit Higseth spoke about solid power, warrior spirit, and the need for NATO members to spend up to 5 % of GDP on defense. Most of them have only rose to about 2 %, which is the principle of NATO for a long time.
In Poland, the American commitment to defending Poland (and NATO) reaffirmed and committed to strengthening the American military presence there. Therefore, despite mixed messages, the United States does not leave Europe any time soon.
Powell Gskolka/Environmental Protection Agency
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is said to demand a great imposition from Ukraine as an American protection and support.
The mixture of notes and policy makers left-is the United States-led international system, with its multilateral institutions, is close to its end?
The demise of the rules -based system?
The United States has played a leading role in establishing the international regime based on the ashes of World War II.
Critics have criticized the unrelated institutions that arose at this time. But it is better to look at the system based on the rules, as Voltaire witnessed the Holy Roman Empire: “There is no sacred, no Roman, and an empire.” Those who announce the demise of the rules -based system must be careful for what they want.
Such a system of reliable international stock exchanges was barely present before 1945. While the great powers photographed many exceptions to themselves, the rules based led to a wonderful time and prosperity in the world.
Why does it seem that the United States is now retracting this arrangement? The decrease in the centrality of influence in the United States is somehow to explain this.
AP Photo/Ebrahim Nooozi
China's rise and Trump's rise
To put on current events in the appropriate context, we need to return to 25 years, when China joined the World Trade Organization (the World Trade Organization).
The move was supported and facilitated by US President Bill Clinton in the belief that the market liberalization would eventually lead to political liberalization.
Since then, China's growth has increased thanks to its ready arrival in global markets. But he retained a strong mobile approach, which contradicts the spirit of the World Trade Organization. This has led to a lot of resentment and nervousness among Western powers about the changing global energy balance.
AP Photo/Greg Baker
Since Xi Jinping climbed to power in 2012, in particular, China has taken an aggressive position for the rules -based arrangement, after a set of its own bases.
Indeed, the world did not receive political liberation or the trade liberation that sought from China from China. Instead, the rules applied to China (and to some extent in Russia) allow state-owned institutions to participate in technology-if not explicit theft-which is shared by international industry partners.
Foreign companies have been pressed from China and have difficulty competing with low -price Chinese products at home.
Trump's height is, partly, a reaction to these developments. During his first term of 2017-20, Trump properly tried to follow a revenge approach to international relations. Now, when his second term begins, he has a more clear business plan.
What Trump expects now
What has become amazingly clear at the Munich Security Conference is Trump's new vision of alliances dealing with traditional partners in America.
In his opinion, the United States does not retreat to isolation as much as it is a great power with its economic interests in the heart. Trump is keen on the United States to confirm its location in a world in which influence balls are concerned – if not more – than any certain group of rules.
It is clear that the United States is no longer defending pluralism, as states cooperate equally. Now, it focuses more on multiple-world with many great powers, as the United States puts its own interests first. Trump also reminds us often, “America first”.
According to this global view, the allies and opponents used to benefit from the same extent:
The famous openness of America (especially its borders) its liberal commercial policies (which, according to Trump, led to the abolition of manufacturing in the American heart).
Its allies also benefited from the generosity of the security umbrella, which led to their multiple approaches to security.
The Trump administration treatment for all of this involves the distribution of advice provided. An example of this: Vans tell European allies that they should rest the comfortable immigration policies.
It also comes out some harsh medications, and it seems that he is trying to raise a reaction in European capitals, so they greatly increase their defensive spending. This would enable the United States to retreat from being a guarantor in Europe and finally achieving its long -term axis to Asia and focusing on its main opponent: China.
It is clear that Russia is distinguished as part of this plan. Trump appears to violate the attempt to link Russia from its Chinese embrace in order to isolate or weaken China. The difficult deal with Russia on Ukraine may be the price he wants to pay to achieve this.
For security and economic partners in America, this is an unprecedented challenge. Preparation and old expectations do not seem to apply. The important thing now is not the common values ​​of America with Europe, it is its intertwined interests.
For America's allies, as well as its opponents, this will require some hard thinking and new strategies, economically and military.
